RexySDR daily RF report — 2026-10-10
Historical report; not live conditions.
Rolling 24-hour evidence window; see source limitations
Plain-English summary
- Over the past 24 hours (local 2026-10-09 morning through 2026-10-10 early morning) the receiver reported readings on all eight monitored bands, with no gaps in the five-minute series, so the record for this window is complete.
- The clearest feature: shortly after 17:30 local on 2026-10-09, measured levels on seven of the eight bands rose by roughly 6–10 dB relative units, stayed elevated for about two to three hours, then came back down. The 10 m band changed much less. This is a measured level change only — nothing in this evidence package says what caused it.
- The 15 m band shifted to a sustained higher reading from about 09:30 local on 2026-10-09 and remained there for the rest of the window.
- A separate dawn snapshot (06:02 local on 2026-10-10) shows several band windows still sitting above their own recent history by a deterministic margin; the screening system gives a few of these a "medium" attention score. Attention scores are only operator-screening values — they are not probabilities, and they do not mean anything is wrong.
- Regional space-weather bulletins carried a forecast of possible minor to moderate geomagnetic disturbance for 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-11, and conditions were quiet at the moment of sampling. This is background information about the wider region, not a measurement at the antenna, and it does not prove anything caused the observed level changes.
- The automatic history comparison tool is still immature for these local dawn hours, so we can describe how today's readings sit against recent mornings, but cannot yet call any value unusual.
Observation status
Measured facts:
- Latest RF observation: id 25194 at 2026-10-09T20:19:00Z = **2026-10-10 06:19 local**; completeness 8/8 bands; freshness 82 s at contract generation (2026-10-09T20:20:24Z).
- Rolling 5-min band series: 288/288 expected points for a 24 h window; first point 2026-10-08T20:25Z (2026-10-09 06:25 local), last 2026-10-09T20:19Z (2026-10-10 06:19 local). No missing samples observed in the series.
- P20 wideband snapshot: observation 261009_200231 at 2026-10-09T20:02:31Z = **2026-10-10 06:02:31 local**; completeness 1.0; 12,500 points; 13.75 s scan; all artefact hashes verified; Power A and Power B valid-bin sets identical (12,431 bins, 5 kHz spacing, 5 kHz–62.5 MHz; 69 DC-hole bins excluded).
- Environment feeds (BOM space weather, Open-Meteo) status OK, fetched 2026-10-09T20:09–20:20Z.
- All raw RF values in this report are relative and uncalibrated; dB figures are not absolute power.
Eight-band RF behaviour
Deterministic summary of the 288-point rolling series (relative dB, 2026-10-09 06:25 → 2026-10-10 06:19 local):
| Band | median | range (min–max) | p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 m | −72.12 | −79.73 to −68.98 | −78.10 to −69.44 |
| 80 m | −80.89 | −81.98 to −72.36 | −81.67 to −74.09 |
| 40 m | −72.86 | −74.46 to −64.21 | −73.41 to −65.74 |
| 30 m | −78.42 | −79.61 to −68.21 | −78.86 to −69.57 |
| 20 m | −81.39 | −82.57 to −71.68 | −82.10 to −72.54 |
| 17 m | −71.84 | −73.97 to −63.41 | −73.08 to −64.50 |
| 15 m | −76.65 | −81.63 to −69.97 | −80.90 to −72.75 |
| 10 m | −88.17 | −91.11 to −80.86 | −88.94 to −85.27 |
Main time-conditioned features of the series (hourly means, local):
- 2026-10-09 daytime (06:00–16:00 local): seven bands broadly stable. 160 m drifted down from ≈−73.5 to ≈−78 between the 06 h and 09–15 h hours. 40 m sat near −73; 20 m near −80.5 to −81.5.
- **15 m step (deterministic, in-series): at 2026-10-08T23:30Z = 2026-10-09 09:30 local**, 15 m rose ≈+6 dB (−81.6 → −75.1) and held around −75.8 to −77.0 for the remaining 21 h of the window, including through dawn on 2026-10-10.
- **Evening rise (deterministic, in-series): onset at 2026-10-09T07:35Z = 2026-10-09 17:35 local** — a single-sample transition of +6 to +8 dB across 40 m, 30 m, 20 m, 17 m, 15 m, 80 m and 160 m. Elevation peaked over the 18:00–20:00 local hours (80 m hourly mean rose from ≈−81.2 to ≈−73.7; 20 m from ≈−81.5 to ≈−72.4; 17 m from ≈−71.9 to ≈−63.7). Easing returned to daytime-or-below levels by 22:00 local (2026-10-09). 10 m rose only ≈+3 dB (−88 → ≈−84.5 to −85) in the same period and otherwise remained the lowest-level band across the window.
- Night hours (2026-10-09 22:00 → 2026-10-10 06:00 local): broadly flat; 17 m sat ≈1–1.5 dB below its pre-evening daytime level.
- Isolated single-sample excursions, each one 5-min point with no persistence: 10 m to −82.34 (2026-10-08 21:50Z), 10 m −85.08/−83.75 (2026-10-09 05:55–06:45Z), 17 m −73.45/−73.97 (2026-10-09 00:40/03:20Z), 80 m −76.5→−72.4 during the evening rise only. These are noted as series features, not classified.
- 160 m is present in every sample but appears in no FT8 activity list and shows the smallest P20-window activity in channel B; no interpretation attached.
P20 wideband evidence
Single snapshot, observation 261009_200231 (2026-10-10 06:02:31 local). Power A and Power B are two parallel measurement channels; their physical meaning is not defined by this package. A single P20 observation cannot be used to infer change over time.
Global (calculated from supplied per-bin values):
- Channel A: median −71.33 dB_rel; MAD 3.77; p90 −53.51; p99 −43.34; peak −27.49 at 9.480 MHz; 39.6% of valid bins > median+6 dB.
- Channel B: median −74.01 dB_rel; MAD 0.85; p90 −70.86; p99 −62.12; peak −29.93 at 85 kHz; 3.0% of valid bins > median+6 dB.
- A−B difference: median 3.27 dB (p10 −0.85, p90 17.72, MAD 4.29).
Strongest A-channel peaks (measured): 9.480 MHz (−27.49), 1.170 / 1.235 / 1.285 / 1.755 MHz, 5.985 / 6.020 / 6.090 / 6.175 MHz, 9.525 / 9.700 MHz.
Strongest B-channel peaks (measured): 85 kHz (−29.93), 170 kHz, 5 kHz, 1.755 MHz, 585 kHz, 135 / 265 / 340 / 425 kHz, 970 kHz, 1.170 MHz, 55 kHz. Source identity of these peaks is not permitted by the contract.
FT8-neighbourhood windows (±100 kHz, analysis windows only, not allocations) at this instant — A median / B median dB_rel:
160 m −54.3 / −66.6 (peaks 1.755 MHz both channels, 2 active bins each) · 80 m −60.7 / −74.3 · 40 m −52.6 / −74.4 · 30 m −58.0 / −74.1 · 20 m −61.8 / −74.1 · 17 m −51.7 / −70.5 · 15 m −54.8 / −70.0 · 10 m −69.9 / −74.2 (A peak 28.040 MHz, 1 active bin).
Historical P20 evidence
Source historical_p20 (archive p20-historical-evidence.json), same current observation 261009_200231; 241 history observations; history maturity: BASIC_HISTORY_AVAILABLE. All three references available: previous observation 261009_193230 (30.0 min earlier), ~1 h earlier 261009_190230, previous-day same time 261008_200231 (2026-10-08T20:02:31Z = 2026-10-09 06:02 local). Cadence valid_for_sequence = true for every band (30-min gaps).
Deterministic deltas (channel A band-window medians, dB_rel) vs previous-day same time: 160 m +0.69 · 80 m +1.48 · 40 m −0.65 · 30 m +0.04 · 20 m +0.23 · 17 m **+5.09** · 15 m **−6.26** · 10 m +0.89. B-channel same-time deltas: −1.15, −0.23, −0.30, −0.84, −0.52, −1.57, −5.93, +0.47. 160 m also shows p99-above-median widening vs previous day (+9.45 A, +10.48 B) and vs 1 h prior (+4.2–5.5). Vs the 30-min-earlier observation all medians move ≤1.45 dB.
Persistence flags (permitted to describe because cadence is valid): **active persistent ≥6 dB level steps in channel A, 19 consecutive observations ≈540 min, triggered at observation 261009_110231 (2026-10-09 11:02Z = 2026-10-09 21:02 local)** on 40 m, 30 m, 20 m, and 17 m (the 17 m step spans both A and B); 10 m active, 17 observations ≈480 min, triggered 261009_120231 (22:02 local 2026-10-09). 80 m and 15 m each carried a channel-A step flagged at 261009_080230 (18:02 local 2026-10-09) that is recorded as **no longer persistent**. The contract's source summary lists bands_with_active_persistence: 40 m, 30 m, 20 m, 17 m, 10 m.
Shadow screening (operator-screening values only — not probabilities, not anomaly scores, not classifications): 17 m 25.03 MEDIUM · 30 m 21.53 MEDIUM · 160 m 20.14 MEDIUM · 40 m 19.31 LOW · 10 m 18.84 LOW · 20 m 16.20 LOW · 15 m 7.89 LOW · 80 m 5.27 LOW. Highest overall attention: MEDIUM. Formal screening_flags lists are empty on every band; PERSISTENT_LEVEL_SHIFT appears only inside the shadow sub-object. anomaly_classification_permitted = false, so none of the above is labelled anomalous or RFI here.
Time-conditioned reference status
Source time_conditioned_p20 (same observation 261009_200231; same_observation_as_daily_p20 = true — the reference snapshot and the daily P20 snapshot are the same observation, so the comparison is simultaneous, and I note that explicitly).
Current observation local time 2026-10-10 06:02:31 → 3-hour local bucket **06:00–09:00**. Bucket status: **DESCRIPTIVE_REFERENCE** (≥18 samples across ≥3 local days but <42/7d). Station-wide inventory: every bucket holds 28–33 samples across 5–6 distinct local days; worst bucket still DESCRIPTIVE_REFERENCE — i.e. the reference is usable for description, not yet established, and description confidence is uniform across the day.
Deterministic current-vs-same-bucket comparisons (band-window median dB_rel; robust-z is a deterministic comparison, not an anomaly probability):
| Band | A cur | A ref p10–p90 | A Δ | A z | B cur | B ref p10–p90 | B Δ | B z | outside? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 m | −54.26 | −60.76…−48.49 | −1.60 | −0.3 | −66.61 | −72.72…−68.25 | +3.99 | +3.1 | B above |
| 80 m | −60.69 | −61.55…−59.39 | −0.06 | −0.1 | −74.29 | −74.06…−73.27 | −0.68 | −2.8 | B below |
| 40 m | −52.61 | −52.76…−51.16 | −0.50 | −0.6 | −74.36 | −74.34…−73.42 | −0.38 | −0.8 | B marginally below |
| 30 m | −58.04 | −59.51…−57.44 | +0.66 | +0.7 | −74.08 | −74.21…−73.39 | −0.06 | −0.3 | inside |
| 20 m | −61.78 | −61.63…−58.46 | −2.17 | −1.7 | −74.10 | −73.59…−60.07 | −11.64 | −3.7 | A, B below |
| 17 m | −51.74 | −60.12…−51.17 | +3.01 | +1.2 | −70.51 | −69.70…−59.40 | −6.53 | −1.8 | B below |
| 15 m | −54.83 | −63.67…−60.22 | **+6.73** | **+6.7** | −69.98 | −69.44…−63.23 | −3.36 | −2.1 | A above, B below |
| 10 m | −69.93 | −71.55…−67.07 | +0.96 | +1.1 | −74.15 | −73.90…−70.53 | −1.39 | −2.1 | B below |
Secondary metrics outside their same-bucket p10–p90: 10 m A p99-above-median 6.00 dB (z +7.3) and A active_fraction 0.025 (reference distribution all-zero, z undefined); 80 m A p99-above-median 6.11 (z +3.5); 160 m A/B p99-above-median (z ≈ +2.0). Per the guardrails (outside_p10_p90_is_anomaly = false, robust_z_is_anomaly_probability = false), none of this is called unusual, anomalous, or RFI.
Environmental context
Source environmental_context_p20 (context_observation_id 261009_200231 — **the same observation as the daily P20 snapshot**, so this context is simultaneous with the dawn panorama).
- Solar geometry at 2026-10-09T20:02:31Z (2026-10-10 06:02 local): elevation 1.4° above the geometric horizon, azimuth 95.9° (due-east side), declination −6.1°, phase DAY — computed locally from the observation timestamp and site coordinates (NOAA-style approximation), not instrument-measured. The contract's top-level solar block, evaluated at 20:19Z for the latest band observation, gives 5.4° elevation. Solar phase/elevation is geometry only; it is not proof of any propagation mode.
- Space weather (BOM, Australian regional indices — not antenna-local measurements): A-index 4 (valid 2026-10-08 00:00), K-index 1 (valid 2026-10-09 18:00), Dst −3 at the P20-context fetch (−1 at the later top-level fetch). No active alerts. One magnetic warning in force, issued 2026-10-07: expected G1–G2 activity for 2026-10-09 and G0-chance-G1 for 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-11, attributed by BOM to a coronal mass ejection. The indices valid at sampling were quiet while that forecast window was open. Correlation with RF behaviour must not be read as causation.
- Meteorology (Open-Meteo model/grid cell centred ~−16.977, 145.657, elev 490 m — not a co-located weather station): valid 2026-10-09T20:00Z (2026-10-10 06:00 local): 17.2 °C, humidity 95%, dew point 16.4 °C, clear sky, cloud 15%, MSL pressure 1017.1 hPa, wind 2.6 km/h from 192°, no precipitation. The later top-level fetch (06:15 local) shows 17.7 °C / 94% — consistent drift, model output only.
FT8 observational evidence
Recorded minutes 2026-10-08T20:22Z → 2026-10-09T20:18Z (2026-10-09 06:22 → 2026-10-10 06:18 local): 1,341 recorded minutes, 1,312 active, 21,476 declared decodes. Deterministic per-band counts:
| Band | decodes | active min | unique calls | mean SNR dB | range dB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 9,863 | 987 | 662 | −6.87 | −16…+17 |
| 10 m | 5,535 | 880 | 438 | −7.58 | −16…+15 |
| 40 m | 2,737 | 622 | 206 | −8.85 | −15…+12 |
| 15 m | 1,429 | 561 | 186 | −10.49 | −15…+3 |
| 17 m | 959 | 447 | 168 | −9.99 | −16…+12 |
| 30 m | 708 | 302 | 69 | −8.50 | −15…+12 |
| 80 m | 245 | 143 | 21 | −5.20 | −15…+13 |
No 160 m activity appears in the list. The final minutes (2026-10-09 20:17–20:18Z = 2026-10-10 06:17–06:18 local) are dominated by 40 m decodes (VK2ZLX, VK3BDX, VK3AMP, VK7AC, JA5AQC/PM63, JH1IFS, JA1IST) plus one 30 m (VK2FZR, QG61). These are observational decode records only: FT8 is not itself propagation, SNR does not establish distance, proximity, or path, and no causal claim attaches to this activity.
Historical-reference status
From the D1-level historical_reference block (5-min band series history, keyed ~20:19Z centre): 21 historical cycles found, 14 qualified at ±30-min window, **maturity_status UNQUALIFIED**, **rf_state INSUFFICIENT**, anomaly_status INSUFFICIENT, classification_permitted false. Maturity rule: Q≥4 has not yet been qualified as sufficient, and history is keyed by station/time, not test-site coordinates — maturity is not location-stratified. Rejected cycles failed on minute-bins/centre/left-right bin counts (several fully-empty days between 2025-07-23 and 2026-09-26).
So, two maturity tracks read differently and both are reported as supplied: the D1 band-level reference is INSUFFICIENT/UNQUALIFIED; the P20 time-bucket reference (above) is DESCRIPTIVE_REFERENCE. Neither permits anomaly or RFI classification.
Notable measured changes
1. Measured: evening rise across seven bands at 2026-10-09 17:35 local (onset within one 5-min sample), maximum ≈+8–10 dB (80 m, 20 m, 30 m, 17 m), duration ≈2–3 h, easing by 22:00 local; 10 m comparatively unchanged. Deterministic from the 288-point series; no cause assigned.
2. Measured: 15 m step ≈+6 dB at 2026-10-09 09:30 local, sustained through 2026-10-10 dawn (~21 h in-series). At dawn 2026-10-10, 15 m P20-A window median also sits +6.73 dB (robust-z +6.7) above its 06–09 h bucket reference of the prior 5 local days — a deterministic comparison only.
3. Calculated (contract persistence, cadence-valid): channel-A ≥6 dB steps persisting 9 h on 40 m/30 m/20 m (trigger 2026-10-09 21:02 local — coincident with the easing of feature 1) and 8 h on 10 m (trigger 22:02 local); 17 m step persists on both channels. 80 m and 15 m evening-triggered steps (18:02 local 2026-10-09) are marked no-longer-persistent at the current snapshot.
4. Calculated: 17 m P20-A median +5.09 dB vs previous-day same time (2026-10-09 06:02 local), while 15 m P20-A moved −6.26 dB vs the same reference — the two bands moved in opposite directions against yesterday dawn.
5. Screening attention (not classification): MEDIUM shadow on 17 m, 30 m, 160 m; formal screening flags empty everywhere; anomaly classification not permitted, so no item above is labelled anomalous or RFI.
Cross-source observations
- The 15 m direction agrees across independent feeds without being the same measurement: raw 24-h series holds 15 m ≈+5 dB above the previous dawn (2026-10-09 06 h mean −81.1 vs 2026-10-10 06 h mean −76.8), while P20-A puts current dawn 15 m above its 06–09 bucket reference. Different definitions and scales — consistent sign, not corroboration of any cause.
- The active channel-A persistence steps on 40 m/30 m/20 m/17 m trigger at 21:02–22:02 local 2026-10-09, in the same hours the rolling series eases back from its evening rise; the current snapshot still measures those windows above their own recent baselines. The two series are not inter-calibrated; only the timing coincidence is stated.
- FT8 shows no 160 m decodes in 24 h while P20 shows 160 m window peaks (1.755 MHz) on both channels and 160 m B sits above its dawn bucket range; band-level presence without FT8 activity is a coverage observation, nothing more.
- BOM regional indices were quiet (K 1, Dst −3/−1) during the sampling, while the CME-derived G1–G2 warning covered 2026-10-09→2026-10-11, the same span as the evening-rise and persistence changes. Association description only: space-weather indices are regional context, not antenna-local measurements, and no causal link is asserted.
What cannot yet be concluded
- Cause of the 2026-10-09 evening rise, the 15 m morning step, or the persistent channel-A steps: atmospheric, propagation, local-emitter, or instrumentation explanations are all outside what this contract permits; anomaly and RFI classification are explicitly not permitted (both flags false).
- Identity, distance, or location of any spectral peak (9.48 MHz, 1.755 MHz, 85 kHz, etc.) — source_identification_permitted = false.
- Absolute power: every dB figure is relative and uncalibrated; A−B is a channel offset with no defined physical meaning.
- Whether the evening-rise pattern recurs: the 06–09 h local bucket is DESCRIPTIVE_REFERENCE (5–6 days), so today-vs-history is descriptive only; the D1 band-level reference is INSUFFICIENT/UNQUALIFIED, and location-stratified maturity does not exist yet. More local days (≥42 samples / 7 days for ESTABLISHED_REFERENCE) would be needed for firmer description — and still would not permit anomaly classification.
- Propagation mode/path from FT8 SNR or solar elevation: not inferable from this evidence.
- Single-sample excursions (10 m 2026-10-09, 17 m 2026-10-09 daytime) cannot be distinguished from real short events at 5-min cadence — material uncertainty.
- Shadow attention scores and robust-z values are deterministic screening quantities; none of them, alone or together, supports calling any measurement anomalous, faulty, or RFI.