RexySDR daily RF report — 2026-10-08
Historical report; not live conditions.
Rolling 24-hour evidence window; see source limitations
Plain-English summary
- Over the past day the receiving station recorded normally, with four short gaps in coverage (mostly one ~55-minute gap late Tuesday afternoon local time and a shorter gap Tuesday evening local). All readings are relative signal-strength figures from this one receiver, not calibrated power levels.
- The most noticeable measured event was a broad, simultaneous rise across nearly all monitored bands during the local evening (about 18:25–20:55 AEST Tuesday), of roughly 5–10 "relative dB" depending on band. Levels then settled back to near their earlier evening values. The evidence does not say what produced this.
- The separate wideband snapshot (one 14.6-second scan taken Wednesday 06:02 local) contains many distinct frequency peaks, strongest around 1.17 MHz and 6.1 MHz on channel A and around 35.9 MHz and 15.7 MHz on channel B. The package does not permit identifying these sources, and a single scan cannot show change over time.
- Background history is early-stage: about 146 past wideband scans and only 3–4 independent mornings for the current time-of-day comparison. Some bands are flagged for operator screening because a shift seen since Tuesday evening local has persisted through consecutive scans. Screening attention is not a warning, fault, anomaly, or interference finding.
- Digital-mode (FT8) reception continued strongly on the 20, 15 and 17-metre bands; recent decodes included stations from eastern Australia, Japan and Korea. This is reception evidence only; it is not proof of any propagation condition or cause.
- Cannot yet conclude: any cause for the evening rise, any anomaly or interference classification, source identities, distances, or whether current readings depart from normal — the history needed for those judgements is still maturing.
Observation status
- Latest eight-band observation: id 22567 at 2026-10-07T20:19:00Z, freshness 107 s at report generation; completeness field = 8 (semantics not defined in this contract).
- Eight-band series: 270 points at 5-minute sampling. Raw values are authoritative and included; no display-normalised values are present in the package.
- Coverage gaps (deterministic, measured): 05:20→06:15Z (55 min), 06:20→06:30Z (10 min), 06:30→07:00Z (30 min), 08:05→08:25Z (20 min) on 07 Oct.
- P20 wideband snapshot: observation `261007_200230` at 2026-10-07T20:02:30Z, completeness 1, 14.59 s scan, 12,500 points (5 kHz–62.5 MHz, 5 kHz spacing), 12,431 valid bins, 69 DC-hole bins excluded; all file hashes verified; A/B valid-bin masks identical.
- All values are relative and uncalibrated; no absolute power is claimed anywhere in this report.
Eight-band RF behaviour
Descriptive statistics of the raw 24-h series (dB relative; deterministic calculations from measured points):
- Band ranges across the period: 160m −76.6…−64.6 (median −65.9); 80m −82.4…−73.4 (−79.9); 40m −74.5…−62.7 (−71.1); 30m −79.9…−66.5 (−77.6); 20m −81.9…−69.4 (−79.0); 17m −83.0…−64.4 (−74.6); 15m −85.9…−73.3 (−81.0); 10m −92.4…−81.1 (−88.7).
- Night 1 (06 Oct 20:20Z → 07 Oct 05:20Z): 160m drifted downward by ~11 dB to ≈−76.6 dB around 23:30Z, then partially recovered; 40m fluctuated ≈−70…−74; 20m/30m/10m stayed broadly flat near −78.5/−79/−91.5; 15m shifted ~3 dB downward around 21:15Z.
- Local-evening multi-band rise, 08:25–10:55Z (18:25–20:55 AEST; the single most prominent measured feature of the period). Median level versus the immediately preceding window (07:00–08:05Z, before the data gap): 30m +10.5, 20m +9.8, 40m +9.5, 80m +7.0, 15m +5.9, 17m +5.4, 10m +5.2, 160m +0.9 dB. After 11:00Z levels fell back to within ~0.1–2.2 dB of the pre-rise window, except 80m/15m (+1.6/+1.6) and 17m (−2.2).
- Night 2 (11:00–20:19Z): within the final comparable minutes (20:00–20:19Z) versus the period start (20:20–20:55Z on 06 Oct — adjacent clock times, but not simultaneous windows): 17m −5.9 dB, 20m −2.7 dB, 10m +3.1 dB, 30m +0.6 dB, remaining bands within ±0.5 dB.
- 17m/15m/20m night-2 spread (11:00–20:19Z min…max): 17m −83.0…−70.1; 15m −82.7…−74.2; 20m −81.9…−70.3 — i.e., band-to-band separation and overnight drift differ night-to-night, deterministic description only.
P20 wideband evidence
Single-scan snapshot `261007_200230` (all figures are deterministic features computed from this one observation; Power A and Power B are two parallel measurement channels with no physical meaning defined in this package — no time-change claims from this snapshot alone).
- Channel A global: median −70.75 dB rel; p90 −55.00 (+15.75 above median); p99 −44.28 (+26.47); MAD 3.85; 4,442 bins (35.7%) above median+6 dB. Highest peaks: 1.170 MHz (−16.96, +53.8 dB over median), 6.100 MHz (−18.35), 1.235 MHz (−23.36), 9.480 MHz (−23.83), 6.175 MHz (−24.96), 1.755 MHz (−25.83), 0.970 MHz (−26.08), then 1.205/6.04/1.265/1.295/2.34 MHz.
- Channel B global: median −72.53; p90 −62.56 (+9.97); p99 −51.98 (+20.55); MAD 1.92; active fraction 21.7%. Highest peaks: 35.90 MHz (−31.45, +41.1 dB over median), 15.72 MHz (−32.77), 0.085 MHz (−34.07), 0.175 MHz (−38.96), 37.20 MHz (−43.94), 0.005/0.05 MHz, a 14.825–14.91 MHz cluster, 26.30 MHz, 19.90 MHz.
- A−B per-bin difference: median +0.47 dB, p10 −3.95, p90 +17.47, MAD 2.70 — the two channels mostly track each other at low level, with A running well above B across a minority of bins.
- Eight ±100 kHz FT8-neighbourhood analysis windows (not regulatory band limits): window A medians run −48.8 dB rel (160m), −60.2 (80m), −52.6 (40m), −56.4 (30m), −58.7 (20m), −58.3 (17m), −59.9 (15m), −67.4 (10m); B medians −70.2, −74.0, −74.3, −73.8, −61.2, −64.2, −62.9, −70.2. A exceeds B in window median by 13.7–21.7 dB on 80m/160m/40m/30m, ~3–6 dB on 17m/15m/10m, while 20m is the only window where B's median is above A's (~2.5 dB).
- Window peaks: 160m peak at 1.755 MHz in both channels (+22.9 dB A / +19.7 dB B above window medians, 2 active bins each); 80m A peak 3.510 MHz (+12.0, 1 active bin); all remaining windows show 0–1 active bins above median+6 dB, with peaks in the FT8 neighbourhood or its edges (e.g. 10m peak 27.980 MHz both channels).
- No source identification, classification, or interference labelling of any peak is permitted by this contract; these are described frequencies and levels only.
Historical P20 evidence
The `historical_p20` object is available (146 archived observations, maturity `BASIC_HISTORY_AVAILABLE`). Cadence is regular (~30-minute P20 cycle; previous gap 29.98 min) and `valid_for_sequence=true` for all bands, so persistence description is permitted — cautiously, as deterministic calculations only. All three references were available: previous (19:32Z), ~1 h earlier (19:02Z), previous-day same time (261006_200230, 20:02Z).
Deterministic deltas of band window medians vs references (channel A unless noted; dB):
| Band | vs prev | vs 1 h | vs prev-day | B vs prev-day | Shadow attention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160m | −0.49 | −0.91 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 20.0 MEDIUM |
| 80m | −1.58 | −2.18 | −1.60 | −0.86 | 13.89 LOW |
| 40m | −2.88 | −1.02 | −1.65 | −0.01 | 29.58 MEDIUM, PERSISTENT_LEVEL_SHIFT |
| 30m | +0.72 | +1.30 | +3.04 | +0.15 | 21.61 MEDIUM, PERSISTENT_LEVEL_SHIFT |
| 20m | +2.78 | +2.42 | +0.17 | −0.09 | 34.38 MEDIUM (highest), PERSISTENT_LEVEL_SHIFT |
| 17m | +1.96 | +0.75 | −2.58 | −5.18 | 9.92 LOW |
| 15m | +0.66 | +1.43 | +3.01 | +4.64 | 5.18 LOW (lowest) |
| 10m | +0.11 | +0.22 | +3.60 | +1.85 | 14.56 LOW |
- Active persistence (≥6 dB median step holding across the latest sequence): 40m (channel A), 30m (channel A), 20m (channels A and B) — 18 consecutive observations, ~510 min, trigger observation `261007_113231` (07 Oct 11:32Z). 17m and 15m show earlier triggered steps that are no longer persistent (`step_no_longer_persistent`, triggers 11:32Z and 09:02Z).
- p99-above-median headroom rose ~4.8–10 dB on 160m across the three references, and ~2–3.7 dB on 10m — deterministic spread calculations, not anomaly statements.
- The shadow attention scores (5.18–34.38; band values above) are operator-screening values only: they are not probabilities, not anomaly scores, and not RF classifications. Highest screening band this period: 20m (MEDIUM). `anomaly_classification`, `rfi_classification` and `source_identification` are all explicitly not permitted. The 18-step persistence window (~8.5 h) is well supported by cadence, but the archive's overall maturity is only "basic history", so these remain descriptive comparisons against a still-growing record.
Time-conditioned reference status
Status: DESCRIPTIVE_REFERENCE for the current local-time bucket (06:00–09:00 AEST, observation `261007_200230` — the same observation as the daily P20 snapshot, so direct comparison to this bucket's reference is valid). The reference rests on 18 samples across only 3 distinct local days — enough for descriptive comparison, far from ESTABLISHED_REFERENCE; under the maturity rules a value must reach 42 samples across 7 local days to be "established", and no bucket in the archive currently has that (the 15:00 bucket is only DEVELOPING). The reference is same-station, time-of-day keyed; not seasonal or day-of-week conditioned.
Deterministic comparisons against the historical morning-bucket medians (robust-z is a scaled distance, not an anomaly probability; "outside p10–p90" is not an anomaly finding):
- 10m shows the largest departures: A median +3.79 dB (z 9.14), A p99-headroom +3.06 (z 8.02), B median +2.64 (z 8.85), B p99-headroom +3.67 (z 17.69) — all outside the reference p10–p90; B active-fraction 0.025 vs reference 0 (outside range). These are mostly small absolute offsets amplified by a very tight (low-MAD) reference.
- 30m A median +2.75 dB (z 4.34, outside range); 15m B median +4.09 dB (z 4.35, outside) and A median +2.67 (z 1.69, outside); 17m A median −4.14 dB (z −2.79, outside — below the reference).
- 160m p99-headroom outside range on both channels (A +10.3, z 1.91; B +10.6, z 2.23); 80m A p99-headroom outside (z 6.83) and B median marginally outside (−0.40 dB, z −1.97).
- Inside the reference range on all primary fields: 40m, 20m (A median; its p99-headroom is outside at z −1.89), and both channels' active fractions (other than 10m B).
- Maturity caution: with only 3 distinct mornings, these values describe how the current scan relates to a small historical set — they do not establish what "normal" is at this hour, and per contract they permit no unusual/anomalous/RFI labelling.
Environmental context
The `environmental_context_p20` object is tied to observation `261007_200230` — the same observation as the daily P20 snapshot (no mismatch; comparison is like-for-like in time). Context only; nothing here is evidence that solar, geomagnetic or weather conditions caused RF behaviour.
- Solar geometry (computed from the observation timestamp and site coordinates): at 20:02:30Z (06:02 local) the sun was 1.0° above the geometric horizon, azimuth ≈95° (eastward), declination −5.3°, phase DAY — i.e., the scan was captured minutes after local sunrise. The report-level solar block (evaluated at 20:19Z) shows elevation 5.0°, consistent with a rising sun. Solar elevation/phase here is geometry, not proof of any propagation mode.
- Regional space weather (BOM, Australian region — not measurements at this antenna): A-index 9 (valid 06 Oct 00:00), K-index 2 (valid 07 Oct 18:00 UTC), Dst −10 (valid 07 Oct 19:45) — quiet-to-nominal current conditions; 0 magnetic alerts. One magnetic warning (issued 07 Oct 03:05): forecast G1–G2 on 09 Oct and G0/chance-G1 on 10–11 Oct, attributed by BOM to a coronal mass ejection. Those dates fall after this report's period, so this period's measurements precede the forecast disturbance.
- Local meteorology (Open-Meteo model/grid-cell, cell centre ~4.8 km west of the site at 490 m; not a co-located physical weather station; valid 20:00Z, −150 s offset from the scan): 16.4 °C, humidity 94 %, dew point 15.4 °C, apparent 17.6 °C, partly cloudy (79 % cloud), MSL pressure 1018.0 hPa (surface 961.1 hPa), wind 4.2 km/h from 140° with 11.9 km/h gusts, no precipitation.
FT8 observational evidence
Per the contract, FT8 is observational evidence only — it is not itself propagation and is not a causal explanation; no claims about path, distance, or proximity are made from SNR.
- 24-h totals: 1,265 recorded minutes, 1,227 with activity (97 %), 16,719 declared decodes.
- Band activity (decodes / active minutes / unique calls / mean–strongest reported SNR dB): 20m 6,626 / 716 / 552 / −6.7…+17; 15m 4,461 / 657 / 354 / −9.1…+13; 10m 1,798 / 382 / 202 / −7.6…+13; 17m 1,506 / 420 / 218 / −9.0…+12; 40m 1,288 / 537 / 151 / −9.1…+16; 30m 839 / 370 / 77 / −9.5…+11; 80m 196 / 117 / 9 / −4.3…+8. No 160m band row appears in the supplied activity table for this window.
- Recent decodes near the period end (20:15–20:19Z / local morning): 30m — JA8IUB (QN03), JA7BXS, around −9 to −10 dB; 40m — VK3AMP (QF22) −2…+3 dB, VK4WDM (QG49) −7…0 dB, VK2AEV −12 dB, DS2MGT −12 dB; plus JO4IPQ (PM64) −11 dB on 40m. Grid squares are self-reported by the transmitting stations.
- The decode mix places the majority of activity on 20m/15m; this is measured reception content, not a propagation finding.
Historical-reference status
Three distinct reference layers, each with its own maturity — conservatively assessed:
1. Eight-band time-matched history (`historical_reference`, ±30 min around 20:19Z): 19 cycles found, 13 qualified; maturity UNQUALIFIED; `rf_state` and `anomaly_status` both INSUFFICIENT; classification not permitted. The stated rule is that Q≥4 "has not yet been qualified as sufficient"; several candidate days were rejected outright for missing data (00 minute bins on 2025-07-23, 2026-09-19, 09-26, 10-02). History is also not yet location-stratified (station/time keyed). Therefore no time-matched normal-behaviour baseline is established for the eight-band series.
2. P20 archive history: 146 observations, BASIC_HISTORY_AVAILABLE — supports deterministic previous/1-hour/previous-day comparisons and cadence-valid persistence description, but is still described as basic history.
3. Time-conditioned P20 reference: DESCRIPTIVE_REFERENCE for the current 06:00–09:00 local bucket (18 samples / 3 distinct days); no bucket archive-wide has reached ESTABLISHED_REFERENCE. Enough for description, not for maturity-based confidence.
Notable measured changes
- Measured fact: a simultaneous multi-band level rise during 08:25–10:55Z (18:25–20:55 AEST), largest on 30m/20m/40m (~+9.5…+10.5 dB window medians vs the pre-event window), followed by settlement ~11:00Z (deterministic window statistics; cause undetermined by this package).
- Deterministic calculation: a ≥6 dB median step beginning around the 11:32Z P20 scan (`261007_113231`) remains persistent across 18 consecutive scans (~8.5 h) on 40m and 30m (channel A) and 20m (channels A+B) — persistence description permitted by cadence validity.
- Deterministic calculation: 10m morning-bucket values sit several dB above a very tight historical morning reference (robust-z ~8–17.7) — flagged as scale-of-reference, not as an anomaly; 17m morning A median is 4.1 dB below its reference bucket.
- Deterministic calculation: 160m/80m p99-headroom is ~6–10 dB above the previous/1-hour/previous-day references while band medians moved ≤2.2 dB — i.e., the top tail of the distribution, not the centre, shifted.
- Deterministic calculation: night-2 end vs period start (adjacent, non-simultaneous windows): 17m −5.9 dB, 20m −2.7 dB, 10m +3.1 dB, others ≤1 dB.
- Interpretation layer (AI): the above are coherent descriptions of measured and computed quantities; none of them, individually or together, constitutes a change classification under this contract.
Cross-source observations
- Timing coincidence: the P20 persistence triggers (11:32Z for 40m/30m/20m; earlier 09:02Z step on 15m now lapsed) fall within hours after the local-evening excursion seen in the 5-minute series (~11:00Z settle-down). The two sources use different cadences (30 min vs 5 min) and different measurement constructs, so this is recorded as coincidence of timing only — no shared-numbers claim or causal link is permitted.
- Consistency check 17m: the eight-band series shows 17m ~6 dB lower at period end than start, and the time-conditioned reference shows 17m A median 4.1 dB below the same-hour history — two deterministic descriptions from different sources pointing the same direction. Still not an anomaly finding (band-series history is INSUFFICIENT; morning reference is 3-day).
- Complementary timing: the largest morning-bucket departures (10m) were measured just after local sunrise (solar elevation ~1°), and FT8 decodes at that hour were concentrated on 30m/40m; these are simultaneous contextual observations, not evidence of any propagation mechanism.
- The BOM CME-driven geomagnetic forecast (09–11 Oct) postdates every measurement in this report; there is no in-period geomagnetic event to cross-reference.
- No contradiction between the report-level environment (20:19Z) and the P20 context block (20:02:30Z): solar elevation 5.0° vs 1.0° is consistent with sunrise progression; met values differ only slightly across 12 minutes of model validity.
What cannot yet be concluded
- Cause of any measured change: not the local-evening multi-band rise, not the persistent P20 level steps, and not the 10m/17m reference offsets. Anomaly and RFI classification are explicitly not permitted (`anomaly_classification_permitted=false`, `rfi_classification_permitted=false`); nothing here is corroborated as RFI.
- Source identity, distance, direction, or proximity for any P20 peak or FT8 decode; SNR values support no such inference.
- Whether any current value is "unusual": the time-matched eight-band history is INSUFFICIENT/UNQUALIFIED, and the morning P20 reference spans only 3 local days (DESCRIPTIVE_REFERENCE), so no established normal exists for this hour.
- Change over time within the P20 snapshot itself: it is a single 14.59 s scan; all time statements come from the separate 24-h band series and the deterministic ai2/ai3 history calculations.
- Absolute power levels anywhere: all RF numbers are relative and uncalibrated; Power A/Power B physical meanings are undefined in this package.
- Meaning of the `completeness` fields (band observation = 8, P20 = 1) is not defined here and is reported as-is.
- Propagation mode or path conditions from FT8 counts or solar geometry; environmental data is context only, and the forecast geomagnetic activity falls outside this observation period.
Uncertainty note (material): with basic-history maturity and 3-day morning references, several headline deltas (especially robust-z values on tight-MAD references) may change materially as the archive grows; treat all comparisons above as provisional descriptions. No configuration changes are recommended or implied by this report.